Denmark’s competitive telecom sector has benefited from government efforts to develop national FttH services, with the aim of providing widely available 1Gb/s services by 2020. Overall telecoms sector revenue continues to fall, with lower revenue from landline and mobile telephony in 2011 partly offset by a slight growth in data communications and broadband. Revenue decline, exacerbated by the poor economic climate, has also affected investment among telcos, which has fallen steadily since 2009. To secure future revenue stream telcos’ investment strategies are focussed on expanding their mobile and fibre-based networks, and securing spectrum when made available.

The mobile sector is now the largest comms market in terms of revenue. High penetration rates have focussed MNOs’ attentions to mobile data services. These are set to develop swiftly in 2013 following the recent auction of spectrum in the 800MHz band. LTE services have been launched by all operators and will become a dominant feature of the mobile landscape in coming years. The principal challenge for operators is to develop business models which translate the larger customer base into greater mobile data use, and thus higher ARPU.

For more information see – Telecoms Research

Vodacom on the other hand was first to introduce 3G HSDPA mobile broadband services in the country. In parallel, the company is rolling out a WiMAX wireless broadband network. Several other Internet service providers have rolled out their own wireless infrastructure.

Although landlocked, Lesotho is set to benefit from the greater choice of international bandwidth sources that the recent landing of several new submarine fibre optic cables on the African east and west coasts has brought. However, the improved international connectivity has not yet translated to lower broadband prices on the retail level.

For more information see: Telecom Research

 
]]> http://marketsensus.wordpress.com/2013/01/23/broadband-remains-expensive-despite-improved-international-connectivity/feed/ 0 marketsensus http://marketsensus.wordpress.com/2013/01/23/hondutel-looks-for-foreign-investor-to-solve-financial-crisis/ http://marketsensus.wordpress.com/2013/01/23/hondutel-looks-for-foreign-investor-to-solve-financial-crisis/#comments Wed, 23 Jan 2013 20:38:21 +0000 Marketsensus Research and Innovation http://marketsensus.wordpress.com/2013/01/23/hondutel-looks-for-foreign-investor-to-solve-financial-crisis/ ]]> Among the poorest countries in Central America, Honduras has long been plagued by an unstable political framework which has rendered telecom reform difficult. Reform is critical if the country is to address some of the least impressive market statistics in the region.

Fixed-line teledensity at only 7% is significantly lower than the Latin American and Caribbean average. Poor fixed-line infrastructure has been exacerbated by low investment and difficulties in local terrain which have made investment in rural areas unattractive or uneconomical. As a consequence, the internet has been slow to develop in Honduras: DSL and cable modem technologies are available but relatively expensive, while higher speed services are largely restricted to the major urban centres. Nevertheless, the demand for broadband is steadily increasing and there are has been some investment in network upgrades to fibre-based infrastructure, though this is restricted to the main cities. Poor fixed-line connectivity has also inhibited the take-up of VoIP, which would otherwise be a preferred communications medium to expensive domestic calls.

On the positive side, these factors have encouraged consumer take-up of mobile services, a sector where there is lively competition supported by international investment and know-how. As a result, mobile penetration is about 20% above the regional average. Revenue from the mobile sector looks promising in coming years as operators invest in their networks, expanding their reach and upgrading their capabilities to accommodate mobile broadband services. Mobile data as a proportion of overall mobile revenue is likely to double in 2013, though low-end SMS services will continue to account for the bulk of data revenue for some years.

Political developments during the last few years have not facilitated the much-needed reform of legislation governing the telecoms sector. Partly this is due to political stalemate and ineffective legislators, but underlying the difficulties are the close ties between executives at the incumbent Hondutel and key members of the government. Charges of bribery and corruption are rife, and though the framework for reforming the Telecommunications Act remains before the Honduran Congress, there is little prospect of effective change in the short term which would bring about a properly competitive and fair market for some services.

For more information see: Telecom Research

 
]]> http://marketsensus.wordpress.com/2013/01/23/hondutel-looks-for-foreign-investor-to-solve-financial-crisis/feed/ 0 marketsensus http://marketsensus.wordpress.com/2013/01/23/eritel-privatisation-seen-as-first-step-towards-market-liberalisation/ http://marketsensus.wordpress.com/2013/01/23/eritel-privatisation-seen-as-first-step-towards-market-liberalisation/#comments Wed, 23 Jan 2013 20:34:50 +0000 Marketsensus Research and Innovation http://marketsensus.wordpress.com/?p=373 ]]> Under a state-owned monopoly on fixed and mobile services, Eritrea is the least developed telecommunications market in Africa with a mobile penetration of only around 6% in early 2013. Solely the internet service provider (ISP) sector is open to competition. Growth in the mobile and internet sector is now accelerating as the national telco, the Eritrean Telecommunication Services Corporation (EriTel) is rolling out a third generation (3G) mobile network, but more investment into telecom infrastructure is needed. As a first step, Eritreans were given the opportunity to buy shares in EriTel for the first time in January 2013.Foreign investment and the introduction of more competition would transform this virtually untapped market. Eritrea was ranked first among the Top Five African markets for ICT investment in 2012. The country’s economy is poised for a boom from mining which was recently opened to foreign participation, offering attractive incentives to investors.

For more information see: Telecoms Africa

 
]]> http://marketsensus.wordpress.com/2013/01/23/eritel-privatisation-seen-as-first-step-towards-market-liberalisation/feed/ 0 marketsensus http://marketsensus.wordpress.com/2013/01/23/fibre-networks-are-sustaining-growth-in-africas-internet-and-broadband-sector/ http://marketsensus.wordpress.com/2013/01/23/fibre-networks-are-sustaining-growth-in-africas-internet-and-broadband-sector/#comments Wed, 23 Jan 2013 20:30:26 +0000 Marketsensus Research and Innovation http://marketsensus.wordpress.com/?p=370 ]]> Large parts of Africa have gained access to international fibre bandwidth via submarine cables for the first time in recent years. In other parts of the continent, additional fibre systems have brought competition to a previously monopolised market. This has led to massive investments into terrestrial fibre backbone infrastructure to take the new bandwidth to population centres in the interior and across borders into landlocked countries.

Africa’s Internet and broadband sector is set to benefit the most from these developments. Wholesale prices for Internet bandwidth have come down by as much as 90% from previous levels based on satellite access, and the cost savings are slowly being passed on to the retail level as well. Broadband is rapidly replacing dial-up as the preferred access method, and this process is already virtually completed in the continent’s more developed markets.

Most African countries now have commercial DSL services, but their growth is limited by the poor geographical reach of the fixed-line networks. Improvements in Internet access have therefore been mostly confined to the capital cities so far. However, the rapid spread of mobile data and third-generation (3G) broadband services is changing this, with the mobile networks bringing Internet access to many areas outside of the main cities for the first time.

Many fixed-line incumbents have reacted by rolling out fixed-wireless access networks to expand their geographical reach. The technology of choice has been CDMA-2000 which supports broadband data rates with an upgrade to EV-DO standard. WiMAX technology, however, offers higher data rates and has gained ground in Africa with well over 100 networks already in operation. Fibre to the Home (FttH) services have been deployed in some African cities. And also traditional copper fixed lines and DSL have seen a renaissance in some markets on the back of an increasing demand for broadband access.

For further information see research
]]> http://marketsensus.wordpress.com/2013/01/23/fibre-networks-are-sustaining-growth-in-africas-internet-and-broadband-sector/feed/ 0 marketsensus http://marketsensus.wordpress.com/2012/07/30/hong-kong-pharmaceuticals-opportunities-on-the-rise/ http://marketsensus.wordpress.com/2012/07/30/hong-kong-pharmaceuticals-opportunities-on-the-rise/#comments Mon, 30 Jul 2012 23:29:37 +0000 Marketsensus Research and Innovation http://marketsensus.wordpress.com/?p=360 ]]>  

BMI View: Despite an increasingly ageing population (consequently increasing burden of noncommunicable
diseases), Hong Kong will only be moderately attractive to investors given its small
market size. While the dominance of patented medicines is set to continue in the medium term, costcontainment
measures will increasingly prioritise the use of generic drugs in the public sector. We also
note that the anticipation of a year of the dragon baby boom can bring about short-term opportunities for
pharmaceutical companies with infant care products as part of their portfolios.
Headline Expenditure Projections

§ Pharmaceuticals: HKD8.66bn (US$1.11bn) in 2011 to HKD9.32bn (US$1.20bn) in 2012;
+7.6% in local currency terms and +7.8% in US dollar terms.

§ Healthcare: HKD86.24bn (US$11.08bn) in 2011 to HKD89.68bn (US$11.53bn) in 2012;
+4.0% in local currency terms and +4.1% in US dollar terms.

§ Medical devices: HKD4.22bn (US$542mn) in 2011 to HKD4.37bn (US$562mn) in 2012;
+3.5% in local currency terms and +3.6% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Ratings: Hong Kong’s composite score in Q312 remains 60.2 out of 100, which again
places it seventh of the 18 markets surveyed in BMI’s proprietary Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) matrix.
The special administrative region (SAR)’s rewards profile, dragged down by market maturity and small
population numbers, remains considerably less attractive than its risk environment. We expect Hong
Kong’s position in the table to be increasingly challenged by emerging markets in the Asia Pacific region.
Key Trends And Developments

In April 2012, health institutions in Hong Kong urged the government to issue guidelines for
biosimilars to ensure their safe use. Vivian Lee Wing-yan, associate professor of the School of
Pharmacy at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said industry professionals and the
government should collectively issue regulations and guidelines, as well as raising public
awareness about biosimilars through education, as they are more complex to manufacture. Lee
also asked the government to monitor the efficacy and side-effects of biosimilars after they are
registered.

In April 2012, Swedish healthcare company Meda opened an affiliate in Hong Kong, following
the company’s decision in 2011 to establish an affiliate presence in Beijing. The openings point
towards the increasingly important role China will play in the company’s Asian expansion
strategy.

In May 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) designated the Chinese Medicine Division
(CMD) of the Department of Health (DH) as the Collaborating Centre for Traditional Medicine
(CCTM) in Hong Kong. It is the first of its kind in the world as the Centre will focus on assisting
the WHO to formulate policies and strategies, as well as setting regulatory standards for
traditional medicine. Addressing the inauguration ceremony, the secretary for food and health,
Dr York Chow, said that there was a clear trend of increasing demand for Chinese medicine
services from the public, and the government has been actively incorporating Chinese medicine
services into the public healthcare system including the setting up of 16 Chinese medicine clinics
in the territory and the provision of Chinese and Western medicine shared care services in some
20 public hospitals.

BMI Economic View: The recent uptick in Hong Kong’s Q411 real GDP growth is likely to reverse in
the first half of 2012. Weakening external demand conditions should see Hong Kong’s exports take a hit.
Meanwhile, the correction in the domestic real estate market is likely to gather pace through 2012, having
ramifications on consumption and investment spending. Consequently, we have revised our 2012
forecasts and now see real GDP growth slowing to 2.2% from a previous estimate of 3.0%.
BMI Political View: Leung Chun-ying won Hong Kong’s 2012 Chief Executive Elections on March 25
with more than double the votes of previous front-runner and Beijing-favourite Henry Tang. However, his
public support remains low given his purported political leanings and this is likely to be the main source
of concern regarding his tenure going forward. Near term volatility in the business environment is
unlikely given that he will have to placate and win over business leaders in order to consolidate support
for his administration.

See Full Report

Other Pharma News

Since Q1 08, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns.

It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter. The evaluation of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the ‘Limits of potential returns’, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the ‘Risks to realisation of returns’ also includes banking elements and country elemens (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk).

However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively. Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the ‘Risks to the realisation of returns’ category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s Investor Services’ ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.

See Full Report Here

http://marketsensus.com/united-kingdom-commercial-banking-report-q3-2011

Other Banking Reports

“The proportion of iPad-owning professionals who cease buying DVDs is
highest in South America (67%), Asia (60%) and Europe (57%).“

We asked respondents how iPad ownership had affected their
propensity to buy newspapers, books and DVDs. Nearly threequarters
say that owning an iPad has reduced the frequency with
which they purchase newspapers and books. Half say that owning an
iPad means they are less likely to purchase films on DVD.

These markets for physical media are already in decline. On this
evidence, tablet computing will hasten their demise. For advertising funded
media (newspapers and magazines), the challenges are
particularly substantial. Readers who can afford iPads tend to be more
demographically desirable than those who cannot. The danger for
media owners is that migration to tablet consumption will “top-slice”
their audiences, denying them the opportunity to monetize their
most valuable readers via print advertising, which remains relatively
lucrative.
Here, too, the regional variations are significant. IT and business
professionals in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and South America are
least likely to continue buying newspapers once they acquire an iPad.
In the US and Europe, owning an iPad results in less of a negative
effect on newspaper purchasing – perhaps because professionals in
these regions have already shifted much of their reading from print to
online media.
The pattern is similar for printed books and – to an extent – for DVD
purchasing. iPad-owning IT professionals in Asia and the Middle East
have an above-average propensity to stop buying printed books. The
proportion of iPad-owning professionals who cease buying DVDs is
highest in South America (67%), Asia (60%) and Europe (57%).

Source: http://www.marketsensus.com

Further Research:

Ipad in Business

Newspapers

New, more energy efficient technologies will play a large part on
achieving these targets, with the emphasis being on making better use of existing resources in
the short term while planning for new forms of energy in the
longer term.
Nanotechnologies, already funded to the tune of four billion
pounds by governments worldwide, are becoming a major
weapon in the struggle against climate change. The six
technologies discussed in this report are all available now or
within the next two years, and some have been making stealthy
inroads into global industry for as long as a decade.
Typical examples are better insulated buildings using aerogels
which can help reduce the 30% of carbon emissions generated
from households, while lighter, stronger materials based on
nanotechnology are being used in cars, busses and aeroplanes to
dramatically improve fuel efficiency.

Simultaneously, advances in fuel cells and hybrid electric
powered vehicles are enabling the world’s largest automotive
manufacturers to produce low or zero-emission vehicles that
combine energy efficiency with the kind of performance that
consumers are accustomed to.

In the meantime, the use of fuelborne catalysts based on nanomaterials
are being used to improve diesel fuel efficiency by as much as 10%.
This report gives an introduction to the key technologies being
used, their impact on emissions, their availability and the key
players involved. For more detailed information contact us at
http://www.marketsensus.com

Further Research

Nanotechnology

Clean Tech

Although if you live in any major city you might start wondering if the recession is like Santa; Everyone talks about him but no one actually sees evidence. Any decent restaurant has a line of truffle hungry patrons waiting around the bar for 90 minutes for a table, organic suppliers are still committing extortion with prices akin to an arm, a leg and your first born for a bunch of gnarled carrots. While trustifarians are occupying Wall Street, the upwardly mobile are occupying lounge-bars sipping gold-leaf cocktails make it clear that there is buoyancy in our economy.

At the end of any year there are the winners and the losers. MF Global are clearly in the loser camp after filing the eighth-largest U.S. bankruptcy claim in history. MF Global reported a shortfall in customer accounts at $891,465,650 as of close of business Friday, October 28, 2011. Three days previously, they reported a quarterly loss of a casual $191.6 million. In response Moodies and Fitch cut MF credit rankings to Junk. They are not the only ones to be downgraded this year and perhaps it’s interesting to note that similar to the other high profile case in question (U.S. Government), they used their customers’ cash to try bail themselves out of their sinking luxury cruise liner.  No doubt the investigations into the MF Global CEO Corzine and his cronies will provide more salacious gossip far into 2012.

Reed Hastings, the blogger aka CEO of Netflix opening remarks at every board meeting this year just may be: “let’s never mention 2011 again”. The company’s share price dropped  a jawdropping 60% which is possibly a rational response to gouging fees from core customers whilst announcing plans for global expansion. I’m not sure who came up with the genius customer loyalty strategy but I can guarantee: The research behind that decision was not exactly what we might call solid. Imagine being a fly on the wall at the meeting to hear that great business idea born:

Marketing: “I have an idea, to enhance customer value and relationship why don’t we divide DVD rental and movie downloads and charge separately.”

Billing: “That would cause more accounting dreams for us – more work for the same revenue, let’s do it!”

Loyalty Program Genius: “Customers will become more loyal as they will have two accounts instead of one”

CFO: “Our actuary has gone over the figures and the operation costs will be higher so we’ll need to charge more”

Bozo: Ok we will now charge $15.98 per month instead of $9.99 for the same service

All: Cheering and patting themselves on the back for their ‘innovative’ ideas.

The end result was 2 million subscribers cancelling Netflix accounts. Extrapolate the LTV (life time value) of those two million subscribers and multiply it with new competitors in the market, you’ve got yourself a corporate fiasco on your hands.

Groupon’s dismal IPO opening this year had blind-sheep commentators decrying the “next tech bubble bust”. Anyone with half a synapse firing, even with a whisky induced hangover would understand that there is nothing “tech” about printing a coupon to take to a restaurant. If we label Groupon as a tech company The Wall Street Journal is also, as is the sushi bar down the road, because they have a website. For the sake of sanity let’s call Groupon a database marketing company, a business model operating, long before Google became a verb. Now we understand why Groupon’s IPO didn’t reach stratospheric proportions. Speaking of which…

Linkedin would be classified, even by the most resolute conservatives as one of the year’s runaway successes. Every silicon valley VC (whether vulture or venture) salivates for an idea like this. We have to wait till next week when we discuss the winners of 2011. One thing is for sure, whether it was a good year or a bad one, we’re all looking forward to a 2012.

Bye for now, feel free to share your thoughts on failures below.

JJ.

jjenno@marketsensus.com

http://www.marketsensus.com